Corruption is not just a collection of isolated acts by individuals. It is a complex, adaptive system that evolves in response to efforts to control it. And seeing it this way opens up new possibilities to tackle it more effectively.

This was the central message of a recent Basel Institute on Governance research webinar exploring how corruption evolves and what this means for designing interventions that remain effective over time.

Two senior researchers from the Basel Institute's Prevention, Research and Innovation – Dr Claudia Baez Camargo and Dr Jacopo Costa – were joined by Dr Maria Nizzero, Head of Sanctions Policy at UK Finance and Associate Research Fellow at RUSI, to explore corruption's networked nature and its implications.

These implications are practical as much as conceptual. Understanding corruption as a networked, adaptive system changes how corruption, organised crime, sanctions evasion and related threats need to be addressed in practice.

Corruption as a dynamic system

A recent academic paper by Dr Baez Camargo and Dr Costa highlights a key gap in how corruption is typically analysed. While it is widely accepted that corrupt and criminal strategies change over time, the mechanisms driving that change have received far less attention.

Their analytical framework suggests that corruption evolves through changes in the behaviour of individuals within networks, shaped by shifts in the broader environment. These shifts may include stronger enforcement, legal and regulatory reforms, technological developments, or wider political and economic change. When new strategies prove effective, they spread across networks through collaboration, brokerage and imitation.

A case study of Italy illustrates this process. In the early 1990s, corruption operated through relatively centralised, pyramidal structures linked to political parties. Over time, following scandals, reforms and increased scrutiny, this system became more fragmented and decentralised. Corrupt practices moved away from formalised exchanges and became more networked, informal and embedded in relationships.

The outcome was not less corruption, but different corruption.

As Dr Costa noted, corruption and anti-corruption are engaged in an “uninterrupted dance”, in which “very often, corrupt actors are two steps ahead of us”.

The concept of the “kleptocratic enterprise”

Looking at corruption through a network lens also opens up new ways of thinking about how to tackle it.

Research by Dr Nizzero and co-authors Professor John Heathershaw and Professor Tom Mayne highlights the persistent challenges of asset recovery and enforcement in cases of large-scale corruption. Illicit wealth is often concealed through complex ownership structures, dispersed across jurisdictions and distanced from its original source over time. Legal frameworks may exist, but applying them effectively remains difficult.

A key part of the problem lies in the role of professional service providers. Lawyers, accountants, real estate actors, company service providers and others help move, manage and shield assets. These actors often operate across borders and may serve a wide range of clients, including both organised crime groups and politically exposed individuals.

This has led to the idea of a “kleptocratic enterprise”: a networked system in which clients demand services such as concealment and asset protection, and a range of actors supply those services. Viewing corruption in this way shifts attention towards patterns of conduct, relationships and enabling structures.

It also suggests that tools used to tackle organised crime, such as anti-racketeering or anti-mafia approaches, may offer useful insights. These frameworks often focus on networks rather than individuals, combine multiple legal tools and allow for a broader understanding of harm, including the impact on society.

At the same time, responses must remain grounded in due process and the rule of law. Stronger measures can create new risks, including displacement of illicit activity to other jurisdictions or unintended consequences linked to overreach. The challenge is to expand the toolkit without compromising core legal principles.

When enforcement creates new risks

Field research by the Basel Institute under the EU-funded FALCON project shows how quickly corrupt and criminal networks adapt to enforcement pressure.

At the Port of Rotterdam, increased inspections and surveillance aimed at tackling drug trafficking made insider access more valuable. Corruption became a critical mechanism for bypassing strengthened controls, illustrating how enforcement can shift incentives in ways that reinforce the role of corruption.

At the Kapitan Andreevo border crossing between Bulgaria and Turkey, changes linked to EU accession, including new regulatory frameworks and stronger border controls, were followed by new forms of corruption and criminal activity. These included routinised extractive practices, shifts in smuggling strategies and the emergence of new actors.

Across both cases, the pattern is consistent. Measures designed to reduce corruption and illicit activity can reshape how those activities are organised and carried out.

Why networks are so resilient

One reason corruption adapts so effectively lies in the nature of the networks themselves.

As Dr Baez Camargo explains, enforcement-focused approaches can become a “whack-a-mole game” when underlying incentives remain unchanged. Efforts to close one avenue often lead to the emergence of another.

Informal networks are particularly resilient because they are built on more than financial exchange. Trust, personal relationships and shared social norms play a central role. These elements are difficult to detect, harder to regulate and highly adaptable.

Criminal and corrupt networks are also flexible and opportunistic. They can shift strategies, routes and methods quickly, drawing on significant resources and expertise. Formal institutions, by contrast, operate within legal and procedural constraints, which can limit their ability to respond at the same pace.

Towards more adaptive responses

If corruption behaves like a complex adaptive system, anti-corruption efforts need to reflect that reality.

One emerging approach is to place greater emphasis on understanding systems rather than focusing narrowly on individual interventions. This involves mapping relationships, incentives and behavioural patterns in much greater depth, and remaining alert to how these evolve over time.

It also requires a shift away from strictly linear theories of change. Fixed indicators and predefined outcomes can miss important developments, particularly when systems are dynamic and interconnected. A more flexible approach allows practitioners to identify early signals of change, whether positive or negative, and adjust their strategies accordingly.

As Dr Baez Camargo puts it, “we cannot keep thinking that change is linear”. A better understanding of systems, combined with the ability to detect and respond to change, is essential for staying relevant in rapidly evolving contexts.

A shift in perspective

Taken together, these insights point to a broader conclusion. Corruption is not static, and responses to it cannot be static either.

Understanding corruption as a networked, adaptive system changes how problems are defined and how solutions are designed. It brings greater attention to relationships, incentives and enabling structures. It also highlights the importance of anticipating how systems will respond to interventions.

For practitioners working on corruption, organised crime or related risks, this shift is increasingly important. Integrating it into programming should help us not only respond more quickly as corruption adapts – i.e. whack the moles more rapidly when they pop up. It should also help us design flexible, creative and context-sensitive interventions that can genuinely disrupt these resilient illicit networks and themselves adapt to remain effective over time.

Learn more

• Conceptualizing the evolution of corruption: an empirical analysis from Italy, by Dr Jacopo Costa and Dr Claudia Baez Camargo.
• Corruption as a facilitator of drug trafficking in the port of Rotterdam, by Dr Saba Kassa and Dr Jacopo Costa 
• The Kleptocratic Enterprise: Lessons from organised crime to target transnational corruption and strengthen asset recovery in the UK, by Dr Maria Nizzero, Professor John Heathershaw and Professor Tom Mayne

Webinar recording

Disclaimer

This webinar and summary are part of the FALCON (Fight Against Largescale Corruption and Organised Crime Networks) project. FALCON is funded under the European Union’s Horizon Europe Framework Program Grant Agreement ID 101121281. The Basel Institute on Governance, as an associated partner without the right to receive funds directly from the European Research Executive Agency, has received funding from the Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation (SERI). The contents of this summary are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union, the European Research Executive Agency or SERI.